软件将如何主导汽车行业

Once a concept confined to science fiction novels and futuristic movies, 自动驾驶汽车现在已经成为现实. 特斯拉, 超级和Alphabet的 Waymo initially led the way, but traditional automakers have become a driving force in this paradigm 转变.

2016年，通用汽车开始以10亿美元的价格收购自动驾驶技术初创公司Cruise Automation 买断了另一个投资者的股份 为2美元.2022年10亿美元. 现代汽车计划 花费50亿美元 on US self-driving technology and robotics by 2025, 一项包括莫蒂在内的投资, a mobile technology company that is currently testing robotaxis on public roads in the States. Volkswagen’s vehicle software unit, called Cariad, is earmarking more than $2 billion for a 共同努力 with China’s Horizon Robotics to create autonomous driving chips for the Chinese market.

这只是许多原始设备制造商的冰山一角, 一级供应商, 新兴科技公司都在寻找机会在自动驾驶汽车(AV)市场占有一席之地. Driving all this is a recognition that a profound 转变 is underway in the 汽车 行业. 如下图1和2所示, 科尔尼公司(AT Kearney)估计，到2035年，互联移动市场的市值将飙升至5500亿美元以上, 而波士顿咨询公司估计，到同一年，自动驾驶或半自动驾驶汽车的销售渗透率将达到25%.

In this rapidly evolving market, how can incumbents react? 现有的行业参与者都很清楚，自动驾驶汽车将对移动市场产生巨大影响. But how will they change consumer behavior, exactly, and at what pace? 什么样的战略将使汽车价值链的组成部分长期保持相关性? 在本文中, 我们分析了随着自动驾驶技术的进步，汽车行业如何演变成一个软件优先的行业, and what considerations companies can pursue to reposition for the future.

消费者行为的根本转变

随着自动驾驶技术的进步, a profound 转变 in consumer behavior will alter the revenue model and value chain of the 行业. While the nature of these changes will be multifaceted, at a high level we can categorize them into two main buckets.

More Time Spent in Vehicles, Without Having to Concentrate on Driving

The first major change relates to the time spent in vehicles. Many people already spend an enormous amount of time in their cars; with the advent of autonomous vehicles, 这个时间可能会增加. As responsibility for control of the car moves to computers, 历史上很少或根本没有参与驾驶的重要人群是老年人, 残疾人士, 那些只是不喜欢开车或对驾驶没有信心的人将不再面临这种限制. 此外, 随着旅行体验变得更加愉快, consumers will be willing to spend greater amounts of time in their vehicles. 一些 研究表明 that AV technology could lead to increases in vehicle miles traveled of up to 20%.

Coupled with increased driving time would be an increased amount of idle time spent in vehicles. The logic is straightforward: As cars evolve into self-driving entities, humans will have more time to do other things while traveling. The pace at which this will occur will depend on advances in technology, but AT Kearney 估计 自动驾驶技术可以释放1.9 trillion minutes of idle time for passengers by 2030.

移动即服务的兴起

自动驾驶汽车将催化消费者行为的另一个根本变化是出行即服务(或运输即服务)的兴起。. 松散的定义, 移动即服务(MaaS)指的是从个人拥有的车辆转向按需使用移动解决方案的转变.

这一趋势背后有两个因素. On the one hand, the last decade has already seen a 转变 in consumer perception of car ownership away from status symbol and toward utility. 几年来，汽车保有量一直在下降, likely driven by changing sentiments among younger demographics. 尽管有自动驾驶汽车, advanced economies are witnessing a secular decline in car ownership figures. 自动驾驶汽车将加速这一趋势.

Augmenting this trend has been the rapid growth of on-demand ride services (e.g., 超级 and Lyft) with a total market size in 2021 of 840亿美元，2016年增长.每年3%，以及汽车共享服务(如.g.Zipcar). 认识到趋势, traditional OEMs like Daimler and BMW have already pushed into this space (with car2go and DriveNow). And with the explosive growth of car-hailing applications like 超级, Lyft, and 迪迪Chuxing, the lines dividing these services are starting to blur. Once drivers are removed from the picture, 超级 and Zipcar will essentially become the same service. The confluence of all these factors will continue to drive the MaaS trend going forward.

新价值链

The result of the above is that a profound 转变 in the value chain will take place. 我们可能会看到这个行业从oem主导的价值链向“技术堆栈”发展，在很多方面类似于我们在PC行业所看到的情况.

该行业很可能被分为 三个主要类别. 处于最底层的将是硬件公司:那些生产汽车及其零部件和配件的公司. Sitting on top of these will be the vehicle software layer, 是谁提供了运行汽车的智能, as well as the software enabling connectivity of the vehicles and fleet management functionality. 顶层是应用层, 哪一个将利用堆栈中较低的两个部分，为消费者提供与他们的运输需求和体验相关的服务和内容.

Accompanying this change in the stack will be a 转变 in where the value lies. 今天, the overwhelming majority of the value of a car relates to the hardware―the chassis, 的动力系统, 内部座位和照明——但新的模式意味着差异化和利润将向更高的部分转移. 在一个 2013年重要报告, 摩根士丹利研究预测，软件和应用程序层将占自动驾驶汽车价值的60%, a figure that remains a commonly accepted 行业 estimate.

让行业现有者保持相关性, 他们不仅要认识到正在发生的转变, but also act accordingly to position themselves in the evolving landscape.

如何转向未来

面对长期衰退的前景, 进入价值链新层次(软件和/或应用程序)的原始设备制造商将继续在未来的行业中发挥作用. 但是他们是怎么做到的呢? Below, we dive into two important considerations to keep in mind.

Who Will Dominate the Software Stacks of the Future?

关键的考虑因素与哪些参与者将继续在软件堆栈中发挥主导作用有关. Will it be controlled by OEMs, a collection of partners, and open-source applications? 汽车软件将是特定硬件底盘的专利，还是跨品牌和公司的许多底盘的通用软件? 随着这些动力的发挥, 下一个主要的竞赛将围绕着技术的商业化，以及原始设备制造商是在沙地上玩游戏，还是寻求利用他们的投资.

未来几个月或几年的决定将决定汽车如何接收无线更新和其他软件集成，比如允许第三方应用程序与专有软件一起使用. 人们一度认为，原始设备制造商和一级供应商很难进行自我改造，以吸引高科技人才，并能够在基于软件的流动生态系统中运营. 这些球员已经证明怀疑论者是错误的. 然而, the current challenge is to continue innovation at pace, with an eye to cost-effectiveness and consumer value, while legislators and infrastructure builders run to catch up.

数据量本身就是一个巨大的挑战. 研究人员估计，一辆自动驾驶汽车每小时产生3到6tb的原始数据. 取决于这个信息是如何被压缩的, 查询, 和访问, 它可以轻松超过最快的5G网络的容量，用于数百万辆未来汽车的云存储, 根据… 2021年的研究 斯坦福研究人员. Beyond capacity issues of networks needed to make mobile data available, the cost of connectivity and storage at this level would be about $1,每辆车每年200美元.

商业化

保持当前的创新水平, 人员配备, and costs without achieving economies of scale requires a long-term commitment. We are already seeing 转变s in players with Argo AI recently 关门大吉 像这样的公司 Lyft正在裁员. 随着压力的持续, 公司需要创造性地通过临时驾驶员辅助模型来推广自动驾驶技术. 最终, 汽车行业押注于消费者对驾驶辅助汽车的需求，在这种汽车中，他们不需要主动控制踏板和方向盘. 未来两到三年，汽车制造商将大力推广这一技术，要么提供软件启用的订阅模式，要么提高汽车价格.

随着原始设备制造商学会如何像软件公司一样思考，软件的商业化将是令人兴奋的:用昂贵的技术吸引大众市场，并得到正确的等式.

寻找合适的人才

在当前的汽车环境中，成功的另一个关键因素是有效的人才招聘和管理. 吸引最优秀人才的球员, structure their organizations to maximize innovation, 积极计划和管理成本和投资, and commercialize in stages to reduce capital pressure will be the winners in this space. 但是，正如我们在我们的 article about the war for AV talent, competition has been intense and won’t relent. Automakers and OEMs are now competing not only with each other, but also with any 行业 that needs high-quality engineers, 安全专家, 机器学习专家, 以及其他技术人才. 在未来的几个月甚至几年里，移动运营商必须在人员配置和招聘策略上具有战略性，才能脱颖而出.